NFL crystal ball

Stick to... football.

I know, I know… I said we weren’t actually sticking to sports.

Well, this is my substack damnit, and I’ll do what I want!

Anyway, NFL Opening Day (I think I just made that up) is one of the best days of the year, so I’m dedicating today’s post to my current power rankings and playoff predictions.

Agree or disagree with anything? Feel free to let me know in the comments section. And feel free to share this with a friend to tell them how much of a genius (or idiot) I am.

Let’s start with power rankings…

Power Rankings

I’m not saying this is exactly how the teams will finish at the end of the season (keep reading for that). I’m just saying this is how I see the teams right now on Thursday, September 9th as we begin the season.

Tier 1 (Elite — by a fair margin)

1. Kansas City Chiefs: Despite the Super Bowl loss, I still think they’re the best team in the league.

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The wheels have to fall off my boy Tom Brady at some point, but I don’t think this is the year.

Tier 2 (Knocking on the door — any order here would be fine by me)

3. Los Angeles Rams: Is this the year the Rams finally break through? We’ll call it the Jared Goff Effect.

4. Green Bay Packers: The only things holding them out of Tier 1 are their defense and the lack of a good second receiver. Aaron Rodgers can make up for the latter.

5. Buffalo Bills: I still have a tough time trusting the Bills (mainly because I’ve had a pulse for the past 25 years), but they’re very very good.

Tier 3 (Here by default — are there really only 5 good teams?)

6. Tennessee Titans: If their defense can step up, I could see the Titans doing a Mr. Kool-Aid into Tier 2.

7. Cleveland Browns: I can’t believe I just put the Browns this high. They deserve it though.

8. New England Patriots: I’m a homer. Sue me. (I actually do think they have a shot with the lack of elite teams, but this is admittedly probably too high).

9. San Francisco 49ers: I’m a little more dubious of the Niners than others, but 9 sounds right.

10. Dallas Cowboys: Assuming everyone stays healthy and Mike McCarthy doesn’t eff things up (big assumptions), this is an elite offense.

Tier 4 (Even moreso here by default — 11 might as well be 18)

10. Seattle Seahawks: I struggled with where to put the Seahawks and Mr. Unliiiiiimmmmmittttted. I could argue higher. I could argue lower. But I think this is the Goldilocks zone for now.

11. Baltimore Ravens: Can Lamar Jackson prove that he can do more than play with a lead? I don’t think so, but I hope he proves me wrong (I also wish they’d give him some actual weapons to play with).

12. Los Angeles Chargers: If Justin Herbert takes another step forward, they’re in Tier 3. If not, they could drop into Tier 5. Austin Ekeler’s hamstring could have a say in that too.

13. Miami Dolphins: I love what my former college classmate Brian Flores is doing in Miami, but I still think they’re at least a year away.

14. Washington Football Team: Washington will likely play Dallas on Sunday night in Week 17 to see who can finish 8-9 and represent the NFC East in the playoffs. A tradition like no other.

15. New Orleans Saints: With Jameis Winston at quarterback, I think this is the year Sean Payton’s smoke and mirrors fall apart.

16. Pittsburgh Steelers: Conversely to what I said about Tom Brady, I think this is the year that Ben Roethlisberger’s wheels fall off.

17. Arizona Cardinals: Less is less of a knock on the Cardinals (although I’m still not sure I believe in Kyler Murray) as it is me acknowledging that someone in the NFC West has to lose games.

Tier 5 (What are the playoffs? These teams *could* find out)

18. Carolina Panthers: I may be too high on Darnold, but I think the Panthers could sneak into Tier 4 this year. At the very least, they’ll be fun to watch if healthy.

19. Minnesota Vikings: Can Kirk Cousins infect not just his team, but the entire league with Covid? Tune in on Sunday to find out!

20. Indianapolis Colts: Carson Wentz was three games and a knee injury away from running away with the MVP three-plus years ago. Crazy how quickly things change.

21. Denver Broncos: I honestly think I’d have them ranked third if they’d gone all-in for Aaron Rodgers. As-is, this might be a season of pain at the QB position.

22. Philadelphia Eagles: Can Jalen Hurts make the jump? Or are we in for a Gardner MinSHOW? The answer to those questions could move them up or down a tier.

23. Atlanta Falcons: I could argue them in either of the above or below tiers, but I’m gonna hedge my bets here. While I love Matty Ice, Calvin Ridley, and Kyle Pitts, I think the Falcons defense will hold them back.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars: I think Trevor Lawrence is going to be REALLY good and has somehow (as the top pick) become underrated with all the buzz around Justin Fields and Trey Lance. The only downside here for me is that I HATE Urban Meyer.

Tier 6 (The 2022 top overall pick is within reach! But so is Tier 5)

25. Chicago Bears: A full season of Justin Fields could vault them into Tier 5. Related: Andy Dalton is the starter.

26. New York Jets: The future is seemingly bright for the Jets. Too bad it’s not currently the future.

27. Atlanta Falcons: 28-3 seems like a decade ago at this point (sorry Falcons fans). But at least Kyle Pitts and Calvin Ridley should be a lot of fun to watch.

28. Las Vegas Raiders: Who goes first — Derek Carr or Jon Gruden?

29. Cincinnati Bengals: Love to draft a receiver when my offensive line is garbage and my franchise quarterback is coming off a devastating injury…

30. New York Giants: They’re going to regret passing on Justin Fields (sorry Jason). But at least they’ll get rid of Dave Gettleman now.

31. Detriot Lions: Cambo is seemingly on a mission to bust into Tier 7. Can he do it?!

Tier 7 (A tier of their own — I think we need to start talking relegation)

32. Houston Texans: They’re just around for the comedic value at this point. Sorry Texans fans.

Who am I to be ranking your favorite team so low?!? Before you get too upset — just ask yourself this: who the hell are you, pal?

Playoff predictions

Wild Card Round

AFC
Bills over Chargers
Patriots over Browns
Titans over Ravens

NFC
Packers over Seahawks
Rams over Saints
49ers over Cowboys

Divisional Playoffs

AFC
Chiefs over Patriots
Titans over Bills

NFC
Bucs over 49ers
Rams over Packers

Conference Championships

AFC
Chiefs over Titans

NFC
Rams over Bucs

Super Bowl

Chiefs over Rams

Congrats, Andy Mercury!

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